SANTA FE – Researchers at the University of Washington project that hundreds of New Mexicans could die in the coronavirus outbreak through late June or early July – with a peak of 16 people dying each day for a stretch in late April.

Even with social-distancing efforts through the end of May, their model forecasts that COVID-19 will kill somewhere between 245 and 803 people in New Mexico through the summer.

The outbreak would hit its peak the week of April 23, when 10 to 19 people would die each day. Deaths would taper off and end in mid- to late-June or early July.

The analysis was conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The researchers acknowledge there’s uncertainty in the forecast, given the number of potential variables in how the spread of the disease will actually play out.

Just two deaths in New Mexico have been attributed to COVID-19 so far – the second of which was announced Saturday. Each of the men who died were older adults with chronic underlying health conditions.